Let’s pretend that you and I are both rich.

Like, filthy rich. Scrooge McDuck or Tony Stark rich. The kind of rich that would let us both splurge large sums of money on silly bets.

Now pretend that it’s late 2011, and we get into a debate about education technology. I’m excited for the industry’s future, and I think we can make money investing in publicly-traded edtech companies. You disagree and say that we’re both better off investing across a wider variety of industries.

I think you’re wrong, so I propose a bet: We’ll both invest in a basket of stocks on January 1, 2012—mine representing the edtech industry, and yours the whole economy. At the end of five years, whoever’s portfolio is worth more will be the winner.

Four and a half years later, you’re kicking my butt.